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Sept. 24, 2024
Political Cheat Sheet: Prof. Ed Sums Up Ten Years of Thai Politics [S7.E38]
![Political Cheat Sheet: Prof. Ed Sums Up Ten Years of Thai Politics [S7.E38]](https://getpodpage.com/image_transform_gate_v3/nS9mL0_2gyjF_3i2qw9eSe_0UQhKs6LW7-OK1fBzWpI=/?image_url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.libsyn.com%2Fp%2Fassets%2F7%2F1%2Ff%2Fc%2F71fc1cf75f5e217327a2322813b393ee%2FBKP7_EP_LOGO_38_big.jpg&w=1200&h=630&fill=blur "Political Cheat Sheet: Prof. Ed Sums Up Ten Years of Thai Politics [S7.E38]"){kind=logo}
In our semi-annual update on Thai politics, Ed does his best to explain the current situation and how Thailand arrived here over the last ten years. He begins with the framework that defined Thai politics for almost 15 years: one party led by the...
In our semi-annual update on Thai politics, Ed does his best to explain the current situation and how Thailand arrived here over the last ten years. He begins with the framework that defined Thai politics for almost 15 years: one party led by the Shinawatra clan that was populist and relied on the support of Thai farmers in the Northeast and the conservative Democratic Party and military establishment that represented the middle class and above relied on support from Bangkok. While the populist party dominated at the ballot box, it led first to a coup in 2006 against the patriarch Thaksin, and then to a coup in 2014 against his sister Yingluck.
The result was a military government for five years until the elections of 2019. Largely due to a very biased Constitution, the military squeaked out a virtual tie with a new version of the populist party, but close behind was a new player on the scene: the truly progressive Future Forward Party, which was primarily supported by younger Bangkokers. However, the conservative Constitutional Court would go on to ban the party and its leaders. The military was able to build a coalition to choose one of the coup leaders as the Prime Minister.
Four years later in May of 2023, now with a less-rigged Constitution, the military and Democratic parties would get wiped out and shockingly, the new iteration of the progressive party would win outright, seemingly altering Thai politics forever. As has become the norm in Thai politics, the drama continues to unfold. Listen in for the rest of the story.
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Transcript
Greg 00:00:05 On this episode, we do our semi-regular check in on the tie political situation with Professor Ed.
Ed 00:00:11 So if you want an update on what already happened and what might happen next with Tie Politics, you'll dig this episode of the Bangkok Podcast. With.
Greg 00:00:36 Sawat Dee Krap and welcome to the Bangkok Podcast. My name is Greg Jorgensen, a Canadian who came to Thailand in 2001 after catching the scent of the Guy Yang restaurant on Soi Convent and just followed my nose.
Ed 00:00:48 That's that's pretty strong. Yeah it is, it's good stuff. And I met Knuth, an American who came to Thailand on a one year teaching contract 24 years ago, fell in love with that fresh feeling I get after my third shower of the day, so I never left.
Greg 00:01:05 Yeah. Love it. And then the one before bed.
Ed 00:01:08 Honestly. Okay. The truth is, I don't take three showers every day. But sometimes I do take three showers every day.
Greg 00:01:13 The look of horror on some Thais’ face when you say, like, you know what? It's really cold in Canada.
Greg 00:01:17 Sometimes we don't even shower in a day. You don't need to in winter.
Ed 00:01:21 Oh, yeah. You know, it's pretty standard that, you know, obviously a shower in the morning always. But then a lot of times I get home from work and I just feel horrible. So I just shower when I change home from work, and then I shower again before I go to bed. And I don't remember doing that like back home.
Greg 00:01:36 No no no no no no. Especially in the wintertime.
Ed 00:01:39 No no no definitely not. All right. We want to give big thanks to all of our patrons who support the show. Patrons get every episode a day early behind the scenes photos of our interviews, a heads up to send questions to upcoming guests, and access to our discord server to chat with me, Greg, and other listeners around the world. But best of all, patrons also get an unscripted, uncensored bonus episode every week where we riff on current events and Bangkok topics on this week's bonus show. We chatted about my potential new search for a new place to live, and all the issues that go with that.
Ed 00:02:14 The dilemma Greg is facing with his son, who is asking if he can walk home from school, and an incredibly realistic AI text to voice tool that generates a two person conversation based on a short text prompt. Long story short. Next time you listen to the show, it might not even be us to learn how to become a patron and get all this good stuff. Plus full access to over 700 bonus and regular back episodes. Click this port button at the top of our website.
Greg 00:02:46 That's right. And I also want to tell you a little bit of story here. And I haven't told you I was going to do this, but I got a message from, from our from our buddy Damian. And he said, by the way, did you know that Ed's last name. Knuth. Knuth kinda sounds like an Australian colloquialism. Have you ever heard Ken Oath? Do you know what that means?
Ed 00:03:06 I have no idea what that means.
Greg 00:03:08 No. It's interesting. Neither did I, so I looked it up and apparently it's all over the place.
Greg 00:03:11 But Ken oath Ken oath. And I'm going to read from KenOath.com.au. They have an explanation here and it says the Ken oath meaning and saying is perhaps the most loved in the Australian vernacular. It is Aussie slang, short for fuckin’ oath. The phrase is a term of an affirmation. Mate, would you like to come out for a beer with the boys? Ken oath. So there you go.
Ed 00:03:35 That's pretty funny.
Greg 00:03:37 Ken oath, we've got to start saying that.
Ed 00:03:39 I'll take it. I'll take.
Greg 00:03:40 It. Yeah. Thanks, Damien. That's some interesting Australian vernacular that we learned.
Ed 00:03:45 Thank you. Damien.
Greg 00:03:46 Ken oath. All right. On this episode, we are going to revisit a topic that we seem to do about every 6 or 8 months. And that's a quick check in with what's going on in contemporary Thai politics. Now, we did do a show a few months back about the 2006 coup, but it's been over a year, actually, since we talked about what's going on at the moment.
Greg 00:04:06 Now, it seems that political norms around the world are having a rough few years right now, and Thailand is not different. Indeed, we don't want to do shows like this too often because they're often out of date in a month or so. But considering that things are in a particularly interesting state of flux these days in the Kingdom, we thought it might be a good thing to talk about. Now, this is not my forte or fort, depending on who you ask and how they pronounce that word, but it is yours. Ed, you are an actual professor and this is your wheelhouse, so you're in a good position to explain what's going on and bring us all up to speed, including myself. So, what's the overview here? What are we going to be looking at? What's going on?
Ed 00:04:43 Well, I appreciate the introduction. I mean, I actually teach American politics, so I'm, I'm no expert on Thai politics, but I've, I've really tried to up my game, over the years.
Ed 00:04:53 And, so I'll do my best. So just to be clear. This show is meant to be a primer for what's going on in Thai politics for for people who have not been following it now. We did do a bunch of shows before the last election. I think we did one before and one after the last election in May 2023. So if you're a regular listener, you're pretty up to date. Now, of course, there has been some developments in the last year, but we've mostly talked about those on the bonus show, not on the main show. so what I'm going to try to do here is, explain the last ten years for maybe for, for maybe newbies, people who don't know that much about high politics. either if you're new to Thailand or if you, you know, are a tourist who just happens to be curious about this stuff. so if you if you've been following what's going on, then I guess it shows. Not for you, but.
Greg 00:05:49 Well, I don't know, man.
Greg 00:05:50 I mean, like, I live here and I keep up on the politics. But for for me, it's gotten to the point of where I just sort of make sure that, you know, I checked the major headlines, but the nuance and the details, they often just don't sink in with me or I skip over them. So. Well, I really think.
Ed 00:06:08 I mean, I am I am somewhat of a political junkie, and I just think, I just think there's a story to tie politics over the last ten years that I just find fascinating, you know, because I guess I'm into it. So I'm just going to try I'm going to try to tell that story.
Greg 00:06:22 Right. And it's kind of like when you when you grow up with it with, with a kid like, I have a kid and you don't see them changing from day to day. So it's often easy to have tie politics morph and develop and evolve around you, and you don't really see what's happening. But when you maybe you and look at a story, the bigger.
Ed 00:06:38 Yeah, yeah that's true.
Greg 00:06:39 Yeah. You missed the big picture. Yeah.
Ed 00:06:40 Okay. So in this case I obviously I can't tell the whole story of tie politics. So I'm going to start about ten years ago with the with the 2014 coup. So there was a coup I believe it was May 2014. And to set that up, to set that up, it's fairly straightforward. In the modern era of Thai politics since 2000, there really were just two factions and they were pretty clear cut. One faction is a more conservative faction. It was made up of the Democratic Party and the military, which was dominated by a party called Palang Proterra, which I'm just going to call people. and they were associated with the yellow shirts, and they were really a Bangkok based party that kind of represented the Thai middle class and above. So that's that's one faction, and the other faction is a is really a populist faction that, was led by the Thai Tea Party and later the the Poor Thai Party. It's had a couple of different names there were associated with the red shirts.
Ed 00:07:43 They're associated with the with Thaksin Shinawatra and his family and his clan and their main constituency was farmers in the northeast. So that. So Greg and I lived through this era of of red shirts versus yellow shirts and it it in a way it was I think it was a simpler time because in a way it was kind of urban versus rural and to some extent rich versus poor or maybe middle class versus poor. I think this is what for for us, like in our in our Bangkok infancy. That's what the those were the two factions.
Greg 00:08:24 Pretty much that was they they dominated headlines and that was there were other little groups around here orbiting, going this this way, in that way. And yeah, there's.
Ed 00:08:32 Some regional parties. So I'm I'm definitely simplifying, you know, Thailand, Thailand you know, has a parliamentary democracy in quotes. with many different parties so often the, the majority party has to build a coalition with small parties. But essentially you have those were the two big factions, like a conservative one and then a populist one.
Ed 00:08:53 Yeah. and, there was a coup in 2006 against toxin. And so essentially what what the basic story was is that the populist faction, the so-called Red shirt faction, they've just dominated at the ballot box. So even even up into the modern era, which which I'll get to in a second. So they've just been winning every election. That's the basic story. Whether it's 2004 or later, they're just winning every election. But then the conservative faction finds some way, either through the courts or the military, to stop their progress. So essentially you have I mean, we just have to state the facts. Essentially, the the populist faction actually is more popular, as you might expect. So the, the, the faction that was, promoting policies for farmers or for the poor, they were just crushing at the ballot box. And then. But then they would keep getting stopped through some other means. So you have so you have one coup against toxin, the kind of patriarch of the family. And then his sister became prime minister.
Ed 00:10:01 And then in 2014 there was a coup against her. and that that's where I'm going to kind of start my story. So we we start the story in 2014, with a military coup and and where the military takes over.
Greg 00:10:17 I always find it a little bit funny because I just imagine these guys in the Conservative Party, the military party, and the old school guys are just like, they're just like, why do these bloody red shirts keep winning? What can we do to make the people stop voting for them? They they seem to me just not really understand why they can't win against these guys, you know? Yeah.
Ed 00:10:36 No, it's quite a story. The truth is that that the military hasn't won at the ballot box in a long time. But let me let me just continue the story. So we end up with a military government, which is which is part of this conservative faction. Right. And and, you know, this is part of this cycle that is repeated many times in Thai history.
Ed 00:10:58 and we it actually we end up with a military and unelected military government for about five years. so from 2014 to 2019, we have a military, unelected military government. And there are some protests during that period, especially younger people, high school students and things like that. but things are fairly uneventful. I don't, I don't want to say stable because that makes it sound good. but we do get a new constitution during that time that that is very slanted towards the conservative faction in the military, like basically the new constitution, the new constitution just says that, the, the, you know, the military get to pick the entire Senate. So the entire Senate is handpicked by the military. So it's a it's very slanted constitution. but then we get, finally we get new elections. And they occurred in March 2019. So it's the first election in five years, and it's the first election since the coup. but the election is pretty unfair because it's based on this slanted constitution, right? Right.
Ed 00:12:06 But what happens in in that constitution is, once again, the populist faction does really well. It's actually very close between the the put high party and the military party. So so essentially the military party has all these advantages, built in like it's just completely slanted in their favor and they, it's it's basically like a tie. So with all the, with all these slanted advantages, the military does well. And it's basically a kind of a tie Shuttling between the two factions. But here's the twist. Here's the shocker. There's a new kid in town, a new a new player in the game. And that player is a party called the Future Forward Party.
Greg 00:12:57 Don't hate the player or hate the game.
Ed 00:12:58 That's right. This is the new, that the new event. Like. So, you know, like I said, Greg and I lived through this world of essentially two big players going back and forth, and it was this shutdown and that shutdown. But it's just two big players. But 2019, we get a new player.
Ed 00:13:17 And it's really a huge change in Thai politics because Future Forward was a progressive party that was actually based in Bangkok and represented also middle class people and above, and that it was brand new. So I had never seen this before. and, you know, there were there were inklings of this, like you could see this in the protest that took place in Bangkok against the military government because they were not Richard based. So you could kind of see this coming that actually Bangkok people, not farmers, were protesting against the military government. So we get we get just a new player in town. So future forward, they technically finish third. but then the Democratic Party, which is the old like, you know, major player, they do horribly in 2019. Right.
Greg 00:14:10 So it was a total shock.
Ed 00:14:12 That's right. And so you basically have the military doing well, but only because of a totally rigged thing. And then you have the old populist player and then the new progressive player doing well. And so 2019 was a sign, the times were changing.
Greg 00:14:29 Yeah, it was a big sign. They, like a lot of people, even even like professional political watchers were, were really, really shocked at how well the new kid did.
Ed 00:14:39 Okay, but here's the twist. The Future Forward party immediately got embroiled in in in legal problems. So another aspect of this story is that the Constitutional Court in Thailand also tends to be very conservative in favor of conservative factions. And so this progressive Bangkok party, which was the new thing, the shocking new thing, unsurprisingly, the conservative court didn't like it very much. Right. And so what ends up happening is that the military party is able to build a coalition among smaller parties, and they end up choosing, the general that led the coup. So we get we get essentially no change in the, the Prime minister. So previously we have a prime minister who's a general who was one of the coup leaders. And then after this shocking election with like new results, he ends up being the Prime Minister because of how rigged it is, because essentially there's 250 senators that are chosen by the military who get to who get to vote for the prime minister.
Ed 00:15:47 Yeah. So so so and but it he they barely are able to pull this off. And it's clear from the math that they can only do this because the Constitution is so slanted. Right. So essentially we in 2019 it we, we we get how do I explain this. In a way it's a change election because we can see that the the Thai electorate is changing with this new party, but then we end up with like a general as prime minister.
Greg 00:16:21 Right. Yeah. It's like, you know, it's.
Ed 00:16:23 A sign that something has changed, but we're still kind of stuck with the same framework. Right? Right. And then what happens is the conservative court is going to, basically ban the future forward party and ban the the leader of the future forward party torn over over legal issues which are which I think most people consider a pretty minor. So we get a conservative reaction to this new progressive faction. So the future Forward Party has to reform at another party, which is known as the move Forward party.
Ed 00:16:59 Right. But so we end up with a with a conservative military prime minister. But the realization that there's been kind of an earthquake in Thai politics and that we now have a non-conservative party, a actually quite progressive party. So future forward and move forward there. They are generally progressive like I, you know, I we've we had a tell people on the podcast, people member of parliament and then I also tried to follow move forward in future forward closely and there definitely want to change things. I mean, they you know, one of their one of their slogans was, you know, if you if you really want things to change, vote for us. Like, so they're not they're not messing around like that. They've got plans. And those plans pissed off the conservatives, you know, their plans pissed off the court, you know. But but they're not joking.
Greg 00:17:58 Yeah. Let me pause here for a second. So I'm really wondering what their mindset was like. The old guard, the old conservatives who want things to stay, how they have been for the past, you know, many decades.
Greg 00:18:09 What I wonder, really, what they were thinking when when something like this happened, like it became very, very clear that the political landscape and the and the and the voters were completely different. They had changed in a very, very fundamental way going forward. And it's, you know, Thailand's not alone in this. It happens all over the place. But I really wonder what they were thinking. Like, like, do they think like, maybe we we just need to lock things down and just ride this out for as long as we can? Or do they think like we better try to adapt in the best possible way for us? Or like I'm wondering at what point someone would get to to the to the point where they would say like, all right, we're we're done. Let's just, you know, kick back and let let nature take its course.
Ed 00:18:50 The conservative faction has always run the Thai government. And so it's so, you know, things have gotten shaky recently and even more so very recently, which I'll get to in a second.
Ed 00:19:01 But it's the bottom line is there's just a conservative faction of elites that have always run this country, whether you had a prime minister out front or not. And, and so it's not surprising that they would just try to hold on as long as possible. So, you know, as they say, you know, power corrupts. And very few people, very few people just like, let go of power, you know, like, yeah, sure. No problem. I'm like, we're done. Our time is done. That that's not it. That doesn't happen a lot in not a lot not in politics. You know, it doesn't happen too often.
Greg 00:19:33 The last time that happened was Cincinnatus, an ancient Rome. Look it up, kids. It's a good, good slice of history.
Ed 00:19:38 That's right. So the future forward party gets kind of spanked. but then reforms, with, with a new leader. So the, the, the progressive Bangkok based faction is still a big actor in Thai politics.
Ed 00:19:54 And then, fast forward to, last year, in May, May of 2023, we get the second election since the coup. and now there's been some changes, the because the, the, the unelected Senate had expired. And so now the election is a little bit more it's a more fair essentially. So some of the, some of the, the unbalanced like rigging, had kind of expired. So we get a little more fair election. And the result of the election is also kind of an earthquake because move forward actually comes in first. But the populist faction, the the the Shinawatra faction, the put high faction comes in a very close second. Right. and but then the military party, without the rigging, without the extra help, like, does horribly, as do the Democrats. So this this really is a massive shift in Thai politics, because the conservative faction that you and I grew up with in our Thai infancy, not our actual infancy, but in our time, you see that they're both now totally out of favor.
Ed 00:21:08 So the Democrats and the military are now totally out of favor with the electorate. And so it's also.
Greg 00:21:14 Literally our infancy, too, wasn't it? Because isn't the Democrat the oldest political party in Thailand?
Ed 00:21:19 Oh, yeah. Okay. And in that sense, yeah. But yeah, of course I didn't know anything about Thailand back then, but yeah of course.
Greg 00:21:23 Yeah, yeah. But just for a timeline reference. Yeah.
Ed 00:21:26 So essentially that now the two big players are a progressive Bangkok based party, not a conservative one, but a populist party that still relies on the support of, Asian farmers. And, you know, they have factions elsewhere. But this is a big shift. Like a real shift. Yeah, huge. So it looks like for a moment, it looks like we're going to get a progressive prime minister. You know, that's where we're set up with with Peta, it looks like we're going to get a progressive prime minister, right? but the populist faction does something that no one expected them to do.
Ed 00:22:10 They formed a coalition with the military and in in parliamentary procedure, they were able to outvote the party that finished first. So, you know, it's a parliamentary democracy, so you can finish first. But if the party that finishes like second, third and fourth, if they team up. They can outvote you and choose the Prime Minister. Right. The reason this was shocking is that no one expected put by the Populist Party to form an alliance with the military because they they are the arch enemies according to the old scheme. Right.
Greg 00:22:47 So basically, Texans party became friends with the military who was responsible for kicking Texans out in a coup as well as his sister in the next coup. Yeah. So so former essentially became friends.
Ed 00:23:02 Essentially he made a deal with the devil. And of course, as we know, politics makes strange bedfellows. I mean, that's that's saying is, man, it's never been more apt than it is in Thai politics. It's just you just just keep repeating that over and over again to understand what's going on.
Ed 00:23:19 So, so basically, even though move forward, one that allowed poor Thai to choose the prime minister instead of the party that came in first place. So they choose, a very successful businessman, Koon Shrestha, and he becomes prime minister. So now we have one one of the old factions, the, you know, the the Shinawatra faction is kind of back in power with a representative, right? and then but we have moved forward is is really, dominant, you know, technically won won the election. And then once again, the conservative court takes action against, move forward. and the new leader, like, Kuhn. Peter. And so that leads to multiple court cases, right? And then so we get about a year, a little bit more than a year of of relative stability. We have a poor Thai prime minister who's very business focused, you know, not not into any of the other drama just focuses on economic growth, business deals. but in the background, move forward is going to be they're going to be disbanded again.
Ed 00:24:38 Essentially, it's the same people disbanded again, and their new leader is going to be banned from politics again. now they're going to they're kind of ready for this, and they reform, into the People's Party. So that's the third iteration of the progressive Bangkok faction. But here's the here's the strange twist that, no one saw coming.
Greg 00:25:03 another one.
Ed 00:25:04 Correct. So remember I said that the the court is conservative and has acted against these progressive parties? Well, they also took action against kun, who is part of now. Now is allied with the military. So this is what I, you know, I think I, made it. I think I'm on the bonus show. I think I made a prediction that, yeah, the court is not going to act against him, essentially. You know, poetry is populist but not progressive. Like there's a difference between populist and progressive and, they've never been, like a change agent in that they want to hey, we want to change the system that's never been been politicized thing like they've always been about.
Ed 00:25:54 Let's give let's give farmers what they want so we can stay in power. You know, it's like, you know.
Greg 00:26:00 Maintain those old power structures. But yeah, so they're very new.
Ed 00:26:03 They're very strategic. And but they've dominated at the ballot box. So for me, they they deserve to rule because they've been winning at the ballot box. You know, but the court is going to take action against this, the prime minister, and he's going to be removed. Right. And that gives Putih out an opportunity to choose another Prime minister, and in this case, they will choose toxins. Doctor Paddington, who we mentioned before in a in a trivial tie. She's the youngest Thai prime minister ever, at age 38. she's the second woman. Her aunt. Aunt was prime minister.
Greg 00:26:45 To have a real dynasty here, aren't we?
Ed 00:26:47 Yes. Dynasty would be, would be the correct word, but. Okay, this is what, So this last thing has created a lot of confusion now. And this is in a way, I'm going to I'm going to end my story almost with a question mark, because right now people don't can't figure out what the factions are.
Ed 00:27:08 In other words, remember put I put hi. In order to outmaneuver move forward, has to make this deal with the devil with the military parties, right. And that's how they can put PMS in. And then in general, people think of the court. The court is supposed to be independent, right? But in general, people see the court as this conservative actor. So we were in this period where things seem to be stable in that, put I had shifted into a more conservative position, and you have put the military and the court should be all aligned together, roughly aligned.
Greg 00:27:52 Right.
Ed 00:27:52 But then it fell apart. And so it's I've been trying to follow this, chatter and I've talked to some of my Thai friends and people don't know people right now. People don't know what's going on. So it's possible that okay, one theory is, you know, it's possible that the bedfellows were like too strange, you know. You know, so you know what I mean? They're, you know, you know, the bottom line is put high makes this deal with the military.
Ed 00:28:21 But then the bottom line is they're they're their arch enemies, you know, it's like so, so like, maybe they just couldn't get along, you know, they just couldn't get along. And when and when poor tie. So when, when contract gets dismissed and Porter has to pick the next prime minister, they reform a coalition without the military party. Right, right. So they don't need them. They push the military party out of their coalition. So basically the Progressive Party is out in the military party is out in protest, formed a coalition of all the other smaller parties. So now they're not in a coalition with the military anymore.
Greg 00:29:00 Right. So they made a deal with the devil, partnered up with the devil to retain power and get get and.
Ed 00:29:08 Then and like and then screwed over the devil basically. Right.
Greg 00:29:11 And then then and then situation changed. They they shook up the leadership structure a little bit. And then they looked over at the deal with the devil that they dealt with and said, okay, by the way, you're out.
Greg 00:29:19 We have a new friend over here now. That's right. Thanks for your support. But see you later.
Ed 00:29:24 Yeah. And so. Yeah. And this is a created a lot of confusion. Like a lot of people don't know what's going on. and, you know, there there is, there's a possible positive spin to this if you're, if you're, like, a fan of real democracy, maybe, you know, some people think, like, maybe the Thai electorate has really changed and that this is kind of the Thai military's exit, like some people look at this, the deal with the devil as like the Thai military's last dance, you know, so like they, you know, so they played it. That was the like because they got destroyed in the last election, you know, when it wasn't rigged. And then so they, they were able to like, be relevant for a little while, but a little while longer.
Greg 00:30:10 They were go running on shrooms for a while and they.
Greg 00:30:12 That's right.
Ed 00:30:12 So, so they so they made a deal with poor Thai to stop the progressive faction. But that was their last acts.
Greg 00:30:20 But let's let's pause a second here and just sort of highlight how big of a deal this is too, because these guys and the structures that they represent have been a major, if not the major decision maker and tie politics for for almost a century.
Ed 00:30:36 Oh, yeah. Well, I mean, I mean, since people in Stone Crump since 1938. Yeah. Right.
Greg 00:30:41 Right. So so they've got this incredible like momentum and velocity that has always just sort of been there. And suddenly the rug was pulled out underneath them. And I think a lot of people are kind of going like Wiley Coyote after he steps off the cliff, like, what what do we do now?
Ed 00:31:00 Yeah, I think people don't. I think people can't quite picture Thai politics without the military as being a big player. Right? and again, I, you know, no one knows what's gonna happen.
Ed 00:31:12 I'm not saying the military is not a big player anymore. It just right now It's ta ta. They're basically out. And so they're way back in is through another coup. And so, you know, again, from chatting with people, you know, everyone's predictions are, are, are all over the, all over the place, you know, just studying Thai history and the cycle of Thai politics. The idea that there will be another coup is something that you'd be dumb to bet against just just based on history, right? You know? Yeah. Like, you know, like, you know, if you look at things right now, you're like, oh, no way. Why would there be a coup? It doesn't make any sense. But if you look at Thai history in the cycle, you're like, well, the smart bet is that in a year or two, you know, there's whatever, you know. So I'm not going to make that prediction myself. But I'm saying it's like, you can't someone who said, hey, there's probably too many of the coup.
Ed 00:32:04 You can't call that person foolish.
Greg 00:32:06 We should come out with like an Apple Watch app that is like a countdown to the next coup. And it, like, takes into account it's like a little financial ticker. It takes into account all these data points and stuff like that. But, you know, I mean, tempers, tempers are running high and a lot of people are really unsure as to what happens next. A few weeks ago, actually, probably about six weeks ago now, we saw, you know, a poet who is a senior Thai politician. He was walking out of some meeting and a reporter, a female reporter asked him like, hey, what do you say about the new prime minister being attacks in Texas? And she wants daughter. And he reached out and basically slapped her in the head a few times like he was pissed, right?
Ed 00:32:41 Right. No, but I mean, this is this is it. I mean, people are using that as a sign of like, this is the military's exit.
Ed 00:32:47 This might be the military's exit from politics. Like he's frustrated. He's an old, frustrated general, and he's realizing, like, his days are over. you know, but I don't know if that's true or not, but but that's like one interpretation. And that would mean we we have a big reset now because essentially, if that's true, then there is no conservative faction anymore. There's essentially a populist faction and a progressive faction Action, which just resets tie politics because the.
Greg 00:33:18 Democrats, the Democrats have collapsed and the military has been kicked out of the cool kids table.
Ed 00:33:24 Now it's a tie and the People's Party and, that that really kind of changes everything. not having a conservative action. and it's going to take time. Like the Constitution is still kind of messed up, like it actually needs a proper rewrite, which is which is going to require a vote. So, you know, actually, things in Thai politics actually move quite slowly. You know, we had the coup in 2014 and they didn't have an election for five years.
Ed 00:33:53 And, and, and now like to really fix things like we need a new constitution. But now the politics and power, they're probably demotivated to do that. the progressive faction has to reform a new political party. And the bottom line is, the chance that the court will act against them is probably pretty high. So they've got to be super careful about every single legal requirement, every piece of paperwork, like everything they do.
Greg 00:34:21 And that's really hard. Like like we said before, right? The laws in Thailand are written in such a way that, like, everyone has broken a law at some point and if they want to get you, they're going to get you the People's Party.
Ed 00:34:33 They I'm sure they have teams of lawyers, but I mean, if they if they look in the wrong direction, like they're going to get disbanded again, like the Constitutional Court is just they're like anathema to them. so so anyway, long story short for Greg and I, it's it's just so weird to have this, populist faction and and the kind of toxin clan back in power is just because we lived through that whole era, and now we're like, wait, shit is like.
Greg 00:35:08 What was prime minister when I first came to Thailand in 2001? I remember there was a there's a time magazine with him on the cover, basically was saying like, is he Thailand's savior, like the first prime minister to be re-elected, you know. That's right. Yeah, yeah. And, yeah. And there were still dealing with that now. So I wonder if my son's going to grow up and his grandkids are going to be in power. Like it might be the beginning of the dynasty. Who knows?
Ed 00:35:30 The bottom line is, you know what I you know, in talking to my students, it's it's it's I'd rather have either the progressive faction or the populist faction than the military. So if you know, that's the way I spin all of this. If the military is now not a player, that's a step forward.
Greg 00:35:50 I think it will be a net positive for Thailand going forward into the 21st century. Yeah, I think it kind of has to happen.
Ed 00:35:57 Yeah. So we can we can end on a positive note.
Ed 00:35:59 I, I hope that's what I hope I hope that's what it means.
Greg 00:36:02 We'll see I hope that's what it means. And then if any military people are listening to this, we love you, but.
Ed 00:36:08 Well, why can't they? You know, I just want to. I just want the military to do military stuff, which is. But, you know, you know, and I was I was funny, I was just talking to my students today about this. The bottom line is I'm still just American. So I just don't think of the military should be involved in politics. That's just un-American. And I know I'm in Thailand, but I just feel like that makes more sense that the military should not be directly involved in politics, like.
Greg 00:36:34 Politicians directing armies. Leave that to the military, guys. Stick with what you're good at.
Ed 00:36:39 That's right, that's right. You know. Yeah, but but it is what it is. And, although it's been, chaotic and dramatic, I think you can make the argument that it has been good.
Greg 00:36:50 It's really interesting. Yeah. I one, one comment I want to make is that I just, I don't feel the tension in the air, the tension on the streets that has followed previous sort of political upheavals like this. And this one hasn't been perhaps as violent or as quick.
Ed 00:37:06 Well, that's because it's been, it's been it's actually been Democratic. So? So put. Hi. They made some deals, but it's actually all legal stuff. So they did some like Machiavellian political maneuvering, but they followed parliamentary procedure. And you know I'm saying yeah.
Greg 00:37:23 Yeah. But but some.
Ed 00:37:24 People so there's no.
Greg 00:37:24 One move forward was disbanded and just it just kind of it just kind of grew. But that's.
Ed 00:37:29 The court. No. Okay. You're right about that. But I mean that is the that's the court acting. So that's not that's literally judicial. It's not extrajudicial. So I mean okay. Fair enough. Most most of the protests were against, the unelected military government, right.
Greg 00:37:44 Yeah.
Greg 00:37:45 You're right. But I'm just saying, like, despite, you know, all of the upheavals recently, whether they were legal or not, there's been a lot of people pissed off, but it doesn't really seem to have gone anywhere. It just sort of.
Ed 00:37:55 Right. Well, I mean, the bottom line is that all the recent stuff has been legal. You know, whether you like it or not, it's been legal.
Greg 00:38:04 That's the worst kind of legal. The stuff that I don't like.
Ed 00:38:07 That's right.
Greg 00:38:08 Well interesting man. Thanks for that summary. That was really good. it's a fascinating time. And and I think the general consensus is that, again, no one really knows where this goes from here. It's just kind of uncharted territory. So it's never boring.
Ed 00:38:23 Well, I you know, I've been very impressed with, future forward, move Forward and the People's Party. I think they have a very long term view, and, I, I like this reset. I like a, I like a reset of a progressive party and a populist party because I see good things in both of them.
Ed 00:38:43 So to me, this is, a step in the right direction.
Greg 00:38:48 Yeah, I agree, I agree. Good one, good one. Man. Nice. All righty then. Well, let's get into some level of the live with where one of us picks a particular aspect of life in Bangkok, which we discussed to decide if it's something that we love about living here, loathe about living here, or have come to accept as something that we just have to learn to live with no matter how we feel about it. This weekend, I got a question for you. okay. And this is a food question. And I don't know if you eat this a lot, but I'm assuming you probably have eaten it. What do you think of yin tofu? And this is a question that comes from our buddy Gretton on Discord. Yenta Pho. Do you know what that is?
Ed 00:39:26 Oh, interesting. You know, I am familiar with it. I've had it. for some reason, I mean, it is like a tofu.
Ed 00:39:33 It's a tofu dish. And so as a vegetarian, I should kind of like it, but I don't know. It's never struck me as like being unique or it's not something I order regularly, but I have had it.
Greg 00:39:44 Yeah, that's really funny. That's the exact same opinion I have too. And I love vegetarian food and it looks cool.
Ed 00:39:48 I mean, it looks different, you know, it's it's almost like red. It's almost like pink broth, right? Yeah.
Greg 00:39:53 Bright pink or reddish broth. Yeah yeah yeah, yeah. It's cool. It looks like someone dropped paint in your soup or something. That's right, that's right. And people go mad for it. Like they're like, oh, you gotta have you into pho. This place. Place the best you into pho, right? Yeah. And I haven't had a lot of it. And I can't remember the last time I had it actually. But I every time I've had it I've gone like, yeah that's fine a couple of.
Ed 00:40:15 Times it's funny. Yeah. Yeah I'm kind of the same. I'm kind of the same. It, it kind of to me it, it, it looks cooler than it kind of takes. You taste it, and it's just like a noodle soup or like, you know, like a tofu soup, right?
Greg 00:40:29 Yeah. If I eat something that's neon colored, I want to have my taste buds dancing. Not to go. That's right. Yeah. That's great. It's a good noodle soup, you know. That's right. But it just seems very bland to me. And the pink stuff is actually fermented. soybean, paste or I got to say.
Ed 00:40:45 I mean, I got to say I'm just to live with, you know, but, yeah. So no problem with it. But, I never, I never, like, fell in love with it or anything.
Greg 00:40:54 Same with me. I'll eat it if it's in front of me. But I haven't felt the need to to seek it out.
Ed 00:40:59 All right. I do a dual live with.
Greg 00:41:01 Yeah, thanks. I'm good for that idea.
Ed 00:41:04 Are the final thanks to our patrons who support the show. Patrons get a ton of cool perks and the warm, fuzzy feeling knowing that they're helping and are never ending. Quest for cool content. Find out more by clicking support on our website and connect with us online or Bangkok podcast on social media. Bangkok podcast. Com on the web or simply Bangkok Podcast at gmail.com. We love hearing from our listeners and always reply to our messages.
Greg 00:41:31 Yeah baby! You can also listen to each episode on YouTube. Send us a voicemail through our website that will feature on the show. Hit me up on threads at BC. Greg. Thank you for listening. Everyone. Take it easy and we'll see you back here next week for sure.
Ed 00:00:11 So if you want an update on what already happened and what might happen next with Tie Politics, you'll dig this episode of the Bangkok Podcast. With.
Greg 00:00:36 Sawat Dee Krap and welcome to the Bangkok Podcast. My name is Greg Jorgensen, a Canadian who came to Thailand in 2001 after catching the scent of the Guy Yang restaurant on Soi Convent and just followed my nose.
Ed 00:00:48 That's that's pretty strong. Yeah it is, it's good stuff. And I met Knuth, an American who came to Thailand on a one year teaching contract 24 years ago, fell in love with that fresh feeling I get after my third shower of the day, so I never left.
Greg 00:01:05 Yeah. Love it. And then the one before bed.
Ed 00:01:08 Honestly. Okay. The truth is, I don't take three showers every day. But sometimes I do take three showers every day.
Greg 00:01:13 The look of horror on some Thais’ face when you say, like, you know what? It's really cold in Canada.
Greg 00:01:17 Sometimes we don't even shower in a day. You don't need to in winter.
Ed 00:01:21 Oh, yeah. You know, it's pretty standard that, you know, obviously a shower in the morning always. But then a lot of times I get home from work and I just feel horrible. So I just shower when I change home from work, and then I shower again before I go to bed. And I don't remember doing that like back home.
Greg 00:01:36 No no no no no no. Especially in the wintertime.
Ed 00:01:39 No no no definitely not. All right. We want to give big thanks to all of our patrons who support the show. Patrons get every episode a day early behind the scenes photos of our interviews, a heads up to send questions to upcoming guests, and access to our discord server to chat with me, Greg, and other listeners around the world. But best of all, patrons also get an unscripted, uncensored bonus episode every week where we riff on current events and Bangkok topics on this week's bonus show. We chatted about my potential new search for a new place to live, and all the issues that go with that.
Ed 00:02:14 The dilemma Greg is facing with his son, who is asking if he can walk home from school, and an incredibly realistic AI text to voice tool that generates a two person conversation based on a short text prompt. Long story short. Next time you listen to the show, it might not even be us to learn how to become a patron and get all this good stuff. Plus full access to over 700 bonus and regular back episodes. Click this port button at the top of our website.
Greg 00:02:46 That's right. And I also want to tell you a little bit of story here. And I haven't told you I was going to do this, but I got a message from, from our from our buddy Damian. And he said, by the way, did you know that Ed's last name. Knuth. Knuth kinda sounds like an Australian colloquialism. Have you ever heard Ken Oath? Do you know what that means?
Ed 00:03:06 I have no idea what that means.
Greg 00:03:08 No. It's interesting. Neither did I, so I looked it up and apparently it's all over the place.
Greg 00:03:11 But Ken oath Ken oath. And I'm going to read from KenOath.com.au. They have an explanation here and it says the Ken oath meaning and saying is perhaps the most loved in the Australian vernacular. It is Aussie slang, short for fuckin’ oath. The phrase is a term of an affirmation. Mate, would you like to come out for a beer with the boys? Ken oath. So there you go.
Ed 00:03:35 That's pretty funny.
Greg 00:03:37 Ken oath, we've got to start saying that.
Ed 00:03:39 I'll take it. I'll take.
Greg 00:03:40 It. Yeah. Thanks, Damien. That's some interesting Australian vernacular that we learned.
Ed 00:03:45 Thank you. Damien.
Greg 00:03:46 Ken oath. All right. On this episode, we are going to revisit a topic that we seem to do about every 6 or 8 months. And that's a quick check in with what's going on in contemporary Thai politics. Now, we did do a show a few months back about the 2006 coup, but it's been over a year, actually, since we talked about what's going on at the moment.
Greg 00:04:06 Now, it seems that political norms around the world are having a rough few years right now, and Thailand is not different. Indeed, we don't want to do shows like this too often because they're often out of date in a month or so. But considering that things are in a particularly interesting state of flux these days in the Kingdom, we thought it might be a good thing to talk about. Now, this is not my forte or fort, depending on who you ask and how they pronounce that word, but it is yours. Ed, you are an actual professor and this is your wheelhouse, so you're in a good position to explain what's going on and bring us all up to speed, including myself. So, what's the overview here? What are we going to be looking at? What's going on?
Ed 00:04:43 Well, I appreciate the introduction. I mean, I actually teach American politics, so I'm, I'm no expert on Thai politics, but I've, I've really tried to up my game, over the years.
Ed 00:04:53 And, so I'll do my best. So just to be clear. This show is meant to be a primer for what's going on in Thai politics for for people who have not been following it now. We did do a bunch of shows before the last election. I think we did one before and one after the last election in May 2023. So if you're a regular listener, you're pretty up to date. Now, of course, there has been some developments in the last year, but we've mostly talked about those on the bonus show, not on the main show. so what I'm going to try to do here is, explain the last ten years for maybe for, for maybe newbies, people who don't know that much about high politics. either if you're new to Thailand or if you, you know, are a tourist who just happens to be curious about this stuff. so if you if you've been following what's going on, then I guess it shows. Not for you, but.
Greg 00:05:49 Well, I don't know, man.
Greg 00:05:50 I mean, like, I live here and I keep up on the politics. But for for me, it's gotten to the point of where I just sort of make sure that, you know, I checked the major headlines, but the nuance and the details, they often just don't sink in with me or I skip over them. So. Well, I really think.
Ed 00:06:08 I mean, I am I am somewhat of a political junkie, and I just think, I just think there's a story to tie politics over the last ten years that I just find fascinating, you know, because I guess I'm into it. So I'm just going to try I'm going to try to tell that story.
Greg 00:06:22 Right. And it's kind of like when you when you grow up with it with, with a kid like, I have a kid and you don't see them changing from day to day. So it's often easy to have tie politics morph and develop and evolve around you, and you don't really see what's happening. But when you maybe you and look at a story, the bigger.
Ed 00:06:38 Yeah, yeah that's true.
Greg 00:06:39 Yeah. You missed the big picture. Yeah.
Ed 00:06:40 Okay. So in this case I obviously I can't tell the whole story of tie politics. So I'm going to start about ten years ago with the with the 2014 coup. So there was a coup I believe it was May 2014. And to set that up, to set that up, it's fairly straightforward. In the modern era of Thai politics since 2000, there really were just two factions and they were pretty clear cut. One faction is a more conservative faction. It was made up of the Democratic Party and the military, which was dominated by a party called Palang Proterra, which I'm just going to call people. and they were associated with the yellow shirts, and they were really a Bangkok based party that kind of represented the Thai middle class and above. So that's that's one faction, and the other faction is a is really a populist faction that, was led by the Thai Tea Party and later the the Poor Thai Party. It's had a couple of different names there were associated with the red shirts.
Ed 00:07:43 They're associated with the with Thaksin Shinawatra and his family and his clan and their main constituency was farmers in the northeast. So that. So Greg and I lived through this era of of red shirts versus yellow shirts and it it in a way it was I think it was a simpler time because in a way it was kind of urban versus rural and to some extent rich versus poor or maybe middle class versus poor. I think this is what for for us, like in our in our Bangkok infancy. That's what the those were the two factions.
Greg 00:08:24 Pretty much that was they they dominated headlines and that was there were other little groups around here orbiting, going this this way, in that way. And yeah, there's.
Ed 00:08:32 Some regional parties. So I'm I'm definitely simplifying, you know, Thailand, Thailand you know, has a parliamentary democracy in quotes. with many different parties so often the, the majority party has to build a coalition with small parties. But essentially you have those were the two big factions, like a conservative one and then a populist one.
Ed 00:08:53 Yeah. and, there was a coup in 2006 against toxin. And so essentially what what the basic story was is that the populist faction, the so-called Red shirt faction, they've just dominated at the ballot box. So even even up into the modern era, which which I'll get to in a second. So they've just been winning every election. That's the basic story. Whether it's 2004 or later, they're just winning every election. But then the conservative faction finds some way, either through the courts or the military, to stop their progress. So essentially you have I mean, we just have to state the facts. Essentially, the the populist faction actually is more popular, as you might expect. So the, the, the faction that was, promoting policies for farmers or for the poor, they were just crushing at the ballot box. And then. But then they would keep getting stopped through some other means. So you have so you have one coup against toxin, the kind of patriarch of the family. And then his sister became prime minister.
Ed 00:10:01 And then in 2014 there was a coup against her. and that that's where I'm going to kind of start my story. So we we start the story in 2014, with a military coup and and where the military takes over.
Greg 00:10:17 I always find it a little bit funny because I just imagine these guys in the Conservative Party, the military party, and the old school guys are just like, they're just like, why do these bloody red shirts keep winning? What can we do to make the people stop voting for them? They they seem to me just not really understand why they can't win against these guys, you know? Yeah.
Ed 00:10:36 No, it's quite a story. The truth is that that the military hasn't won at the ballot box in a long time. But let me let me just continue the story. So we end up with a military government, which is which is part of this conservative faction. Right. And and, you know, this is part of this cycle that is repeated many times in Thai history.
Ed 00:10:58 and we it actually we end up with a military and unelected military government for about five years. so from 2014 to 2019, we have a military, unelected military government. And there are some protests during that period, especially younger people, high school students and things like that. but things are fairly uneventful. I don't, I don't want to say stable because that makes it sound good. but we do get a new constitution during that time that that is very slanted towards the conservative faction in the military, like basically the new constitution, the new constitution just says that, the, the, you know, the military get to pick the entire Senate. So the entire Senate is handpicked by the military. So it's a it's very slanted constitution. but then we get, finally we get new elections. And they occurred in March 2019. So it's the first election in five years, and it's the first election since the coup. but the election is pretty unfair because it's based on this slanted constitution, right? Right.
Ed 00:12:06 But what happens in in that constitution is, once again, the populist faction does really well. It's actually very close between the the put high party and the military party. So so essentially the military party has all these advantages, built in like it's just completely slanted in their favor and they, it's it's basically like a tie. So with all the, with all these slanted advantages, the military does well. And it's basically a kind of a tie Shuttling between the two factions. But here's the twist. Here's the shocker. There's a new kid in town, a new a new player in the game. And that player is a party called the Future Forward Party.
Greg 00:12:57 Don't hate the player or hate the game.
Ed 00:12:58 That's right. This is the new, that the new event. Like. So, you know, like I said, Greg and I lived through this world of essentially two big players going back and forth, and it was this shutdown and that shutdown. But it's just two big players. But 2019, we get a new player.
Ed 00:13:17 And it's really a huge change in Thai politics because Future Forward was a progressive party that was actually based in Bangkok and represented also middle class people and above, and that it was brand new. So I had never seen this before. and, you know, there were there were inklings of this, like you could see this in the protest that took place in Bangkok against the military government because they were not Richard based. So you could kind of see this coming that actually Bangkok people, not farmers, were protesting against the military government. So we get we get just a new player in town. So future forward, they technically finish third. but then the Democratic Party, which is the old like, you know, major player, they do horribly in 2019. Right.
Greg 00:14:10 So it was a total shock.
Ed 00:14:12 That's right. And so you basically have the military doing well, but only because of a totally rigged thing. And then you have the old populist player and then the new progressive player doing well. And so 2019 was a sign, the times were changing.
Greg 00:14:29 Yeah, it was a big sign. They, like a lot of people, even even like professional political watchers were, were really, really shocked at how well the new kid did.
Ed 00:14:39 Okay, but here's the twist. The Future Forward party immediately got embroiled in in in legal problems. So another aspect of this story is that the Constitutional Court in Thailand also tends to be very conservative in favor of conservative factions. And so this progressive Bangkok party, which was the new thing, the shocking new thing, unsurprisingly, the conservative court didn't like it very much. Right. And so what ends up happening is that the military party is able to build a coalition among smaller parties, and they end up choosing, the general that led the coup. So we get we get essentially no change in the, the Prime minister. So previously we have a prime minister who's a general who was one of the coup leaders. And then after this shocking election with like new results, he ends up being the Prime Minister because of how rigged it is, because essentially there's 250 senators that are chosen by the military who get to who get to vote for the prime minister.
Ed 00:15:47 Yeah. So so so and but it he they barely are able to pull this off. And it's clear from the math that they can only do this because the Constitution is so slanted. Right. So essentially we in 2019 it we, we we get how do I explain this. In a way it's a change election because we can see that the the Thai electorate is changing with this new party, but then we end up with like a general as prime minister.
Greg 00:16:21 Right. Yeah. It's like, you know, it's.
Ed 00:16:23 A sign that something has changed, but we're still kind of stuck with the same framework. Right? Right. And then what happens is the conservative court is going to, basically ban the future forward party and ban the the leader of the future forward party torn over over legal issues which are which I think most people consider a pretty minor. So we get a conservative reaction to this new progressive faction. So the future Forward Party has to reform at another party, which is known as the move Forward party.
Ed 00:16:59 Right. But so we end up with a with a conservative military prime minister. But the realization that there's been kind of an earthquake in Thai politics and that we now have a non-conservative party, a actually quite progressive party. So future forward and move forward there. They are generally progressive like I, you know, I we've we had a tell people on the podcast, people member of parliament and then I also tried to follow move forward in future forward closely and there definitely want to change things. I mean, they you know, one of their one of their slogans was, you know, if you if you really want things to change, vote for us. Like, so they're not they're not messing around like that. They've got plans. And those plans pissed off the conservatives, you know, their plans pissed off the court, you know. But but they're not joking.
Greg 00:17:58 Yeah. Let me pause here for a second. So I'm really wondering what their mindset was like. The old guard, the old conservatives who want things to stay, how they have been for the past, you know, many decades.
Greg 00:18:09 What I wonder, really, what they were thinking when when something like this happened, like it became very, very clear that the political landscape and the and the and the voters were completely different. They had changed in a very, very fundamental way going forward. And it's, you know, Thailand's not alone in this. It happens all over the place. But I really wonder what they were thinking. Like, like, do they think like, maybe we we just need to lock things down and just ride this out for as long as we can? Or do they think like we better try to adapt in the best possible way for us? Or like I'm wondering at what point someone would get to to the to the point where they would say like, all right, we're we're done. Let's just, you know, kick back and let let nature take its course.
Ed 00:18:50 The conservative faction has always run the Thai government. And so it's so, you know, things have gotten shaky recently and even more so very recently, which I'll get to in a second.
Ed 00:19:01 But it's the bottom line is there's just a conservative faction of elites that have always run this country, whether you had a prime minister out front or not. And, and so it's not surprising that they would just try to hold on as long as possible. So, you know, as they say, you know, power corrupts. And very few people, very few people just like, let go of power, you know, like, yeah, sure. No problem. I'm like, we're done. Our time is done. That that's not it. That doesn't happen a lot in not a lot not in politics. You know, it doesn't happen too often.
Greg 00:19:33 The last time that happened was Cincinnatus, an ancient Rome. Look it up, kids. It's a good, good slice of history.
Ed 00:19:38 That's right. So the future forward party gets kind of spanked. but then reforms, with, with a new leader. So the, the, the progressive Bangkok based faction is still a big actor in Thai politics.
Ed 00:19:54 And then, fast forward to, last year, in May, May of 2023, we get the second election since the coup. and now there's been some changes, the because the, the, the unelected Senate had expired. And so now the election is a little bit more it's a more fair essentially. So some of the, some of the, the unbalanced like rigging, had kind of expired. So we get a little more fair election. And the result of the election is also kind of an earthquake because move forward actually comes in first. But the populist faction, the the the Shinawatra faction, the put high faction comes in a very close second. Right. and but then the military party, without the rigging, without the extra help, like, does horribly, as do the Democrats. So this this really is a massive shift in Thai politics, because the conservative faction that you and I grew up with in our Thai infancy, not our actual infancy, but in our time, you see that they're both now totally out of favor.
Ed 00:21:08 So the Democrats and the military are now totally out of favor with the electorate. And so it's also.
Greg 00:21:14 Literally our infancy, too, wasn't it? Because isn't the Democrat the oldest political party in Thailand?
Ed 00:21:19 Oh, yeah. Okay. And in that sense, yeah. But yeah, of course I didn't know anything about Thailand back then, but yeah of course.
Greg 00:21:23 Yeah, yeah. But just for a timeline reference. Yeah.
Ed 00:21:26 So essentially that now the two big players are a progressive Bangkok based party, not a conservative one, but a populist party that still relies on the support of, Asian farmers. And, you know, they have factions elsewhere. But this is a big shift. Like a real shift. Yeah, huge. So it looks like for a moment, it looks like we're going to get a progressive prime minister. You know, that's where we're set up with with Peta, it looks like we're going to get a progressive prime minister, right? but the populist faction does something that no one expected them to do.
Ed 00:22:10 They formed a coalition with the military and in in parliamentary procedure, they were able to outvote the party that finished first. So, you know, it's a parliamentary democracy, so you can finish first. But if the party that finishes like second, third and fourth, if they team up. They can outvote you and choose the Prime Minister. Right. The reason this was shocking is that no one expected put by the Populist Party to form an alliance with the military because they they are the arch enemies according to the old scheme. Right.
Greg 00:22:47 So basically, Texans party became friends with the military who was responsible for kicking Texans out in a coup as well as his sister in the next coup. Yeah. So so former essentially became friends.
Ed 00:23:02 Essentially he made a deal with the devil. And of course, as we know, politics makes strange bedfellows. I mean, that's that's saying is, man, it's never been more apt than it is in Thai politics. It's just you just just keep repeating that over and over again to understand what's going on.
Ed 00:23:19 So, so basically, even though move forward, one that allowed poor Thai to choose the prime minister instead of the party that came in first place. So they choose, a very successful businessman, Koon Shrestha, and he becomes prime minister. So now we have one one of the old factions, the, you know, the the Shinawatra faction is kind of back in power with a representative, right? and then but we have moved forward is is really, dominant, you know, technically won won the election. And then once again, the conservative court takes action against, move forward. and the new leader, like, Kuhn. Peter. And so that leads to multiple court cases, right? And then so we get about a year, a little bit more than a year of of relative stability. We have a poor Thai prime minister who's very business focused, you know, not not into any of the other drama just focuses on economic growth, business deals. but in the background, move forward is going to be they're going to be disbanded again.
Ed 00:24:38 Essentially, it's the same people disbanded again, and their new leader is going to be banned from politics again. now they're going to they're kind of ready for this, and they reform, into the People's Party. So that's the third iteration of the progressive Bangkok faction. But here's the here's the strange twist that, no one saw coming.
Greg 00:25:03 another one.
Ed 00:25:04 Correct. So remember I said that the the court is conservative and has acted against these progressive parties? Well, they also took action against kun, who is part of now. Now is allied with the military. So this is what I, you know, I think I, made it. I think I'm on the bonus show. I think I made a prediction that, yeah, the court is not going to act against him, essentially. You know, poetry is populist but not progressive. Like there's a difference between populist and progressive and, they've never been, like a change agent in that they want to hey, we want to change the system that's never been been politicized thing like they've always been about.
Ed 00:25:54 Let's give let's give farmers what they want so we can stay in power. You know, it's like, you know.
Greg 00:26:00 Maintain those old power structures. But yeah, so they're very new.
Ed 00:26:03 They're very strategic. And but they've dominated at the ballot box. So for me, they they deserve to rule because they've been winning at the ballot box. You know, but the court is going to take action against this, the prime minister, and he's going to be removed. Right. And that gives Putih out an opportunity to choose another Prime minister, and in this case, they will choose toxins. Doctor Paddington, who we mentioned before in a in a trivial tie. She's the youngest Thai prime minister ever, at age 38. she's the second woman. Her aunt. Aunt was prime minister.
Greg 00:26:45 To have a real dynasty here, aren't we?
Ed 00:26:47 Yes. Dynasty would be, would be the correct word, but. Okay, this is what, So this last thing has created a lot of confusion now. And this is in a way, I'm going to I'm going to end my story almost with a question mark, because right now people don't can't figure out what the factions are.
Ed 00:27:08 In other words, remember put I put hi. In order to outmaneuver move forward, has to make this deal with the devil with the military parties, right. And that's how they can put PMS in. And then in general, people think of the court. The court is supposed to be independent, right? But in general, people see the court as this conservative actor. So we were in this period where things seem to be stable in that, put I had shifted into a more conservative position, and you have put the military and the court should be all aligned together, roughly aligned.
Greg 00:27:52 Right.
Ed 00:27:52 But then it fell apart. And so it's I've been trying to follow this, chatter and I've talked to some of my Thai friends and people don't know people right now. People don't know what's going on. So it's possible that okay, one theory is, you know, it's possible that the bedfellows were like too strange, you know. You know, so you know what I mean? They're, you know, you know, the bottom line is put high makes this deal with the military.
Ed 00:28:21 But then the bottom line is they're they're their arch enemies, you know, it's like so, so like, maybe they just couldn't get along, you know, they just couldn't get along. And when and when poor tie. So when, when contract gets dismissed and Porter has to pick the next prime minister, they reform a coalition without the military party. Right, right. So they don't need them. They push the military party out of their coalition. So basically the Progressive Party is out in the military party is out in protest, formed a coalition of all the other smaller parties. So now they're not in a coalition with the military anymore.
Greg 00:29:00 Right. So they made a deal with the devil, partnered up with the devil to retain power and get get and.
Ed 00:29:08 Then and like and then screwed over the devil basically. Right.
Greg 00:29:11 And then then and then situation changed. They they shook up the leadership structure a little bit. And then they looked over at the deal with the devil that they dealt with and said, okay, by the way, you're out.
Greg 00:29:19 We have a new friend over here now. That's right. Thanks for your support. But see you later.
Ed 00:29:24 Yeah. And so. Yeah. And this is a created a lot of confusion. Like a lot of people don't know what's going on. and, you know, there there is, there's a possible positive spin to this if you're, if you're, like, a fan of real democracy, maybe, you know, some people think, like, maybe the Thai electorate has really changed and that this is kind of the Thai military's exit, like some people look at this, the deal with the devil as like the Thai military's last dance, you know, so like they, you know, so they played it. That was the like because they got destroyed in the last election, you know, when it wasn't rigged. And then so they, they were able to like, be relevant for a little while, but a little while longer.
Greg 00:30:10 They were go running on shrooms for a while and they.
Greg 00:30:12 That's right.
Ed 00:30:12 So, so they so they made a deal with poor Thai to stop the progressive faction. But that was their last acts.
Greg 00:30:20 But let's let's pause a second here and just sort of highlight how big of a deal this is too, because these guys and the structures that they represent have been a major, if not the major decision maker and tie politics for for almost a century.
Ed 00:30:36 Oh, yeah. Well, I mean, I mean, since people in Stone Crump since 1938. Yeah. Right.
Greg 00:30:41 Right. So so they've got this incredible like momentum and velocity that has always just sort of been there. And suddenly the rug was pulled out underneath them. And I think a lot of people are kind of going like Wiley Coyote after he steps off the cliff, like, what what do we do now?
Ed 00:31:00 Yeah, I think people don't. I think people can't quite picture Thai politics without the military as being a big player. Right? and again, I, you know, no one knows what's gonna happen.
Ed 00:31:12 I'm not saying the military is not a big player anymore. It just right now It's ta ta. They're basically out. And so they're way back in is through another coup. And so, you know, again, from chatting with people, you know, everyone's predictions are, are, are all over the, all over the place, you know, just studying Thai history and the cycle of Thai politics. The idea that there will be another coup is something that you'd be dumb to bet against just just based on history, right? You know? Yeah. Like, you know, like, you know, if you look at things right now, you're like, oh, no way. Why would there be a coup? It doesn't make any sense. But if you look at Thai history in the cycle, you're like, well, the smart bet is that in a year or two, you know, there's whatever, you know. So I'm not going to make that prediction myself. But I'm saying it's like, you can't someone who said, hey, there's probably too many of the coup.
Ed 00:32:04 You can't call that person foolish.
Greg 00:32:06 We should come out with like an Apple Watch app that is like a countdown to the next coup. And it, like, takes into account it's like a little financial ticker. It takes into account all these data points and stuff like that. But, you know, I mean, tempers, tempers are running high and a lot of people are really unsure as to what happens next. A few weeks ago, actually, probably about six weeks ago now, we saw, you know, a poet who is a senior Thai politician. He was walking out of some meeting and a reporter, a female reporter asked him like, hey, what do you say about the new prime minister being attacks in Texas? And she wants daughter. And he reached out and basically slapped her in the head a few times like he was pissed, right?
Ed 00:32:41 Right. No, but I mean, this is this is it. I mean, people are using that as a sign of like, this is the military's exit.
Ed 00:32:47 This might be the military's exit from politics. Like he's frustrated. He's an old, frustrated general, and he's realizing, like, his days are over. you know, but I don't know if that's true or not, but but that's like one interpretation. And that would mean we we have a big reset now because essentially, if that's true, then there is no conservative faction anymore. There's essentially a populist faction and a progressive faction Action, which just resets tie politics because the.
Greg 00:33:18 Democrats, the Democrats have collapsed and the military has been kicked out of the cool kids table.
Ed 00:33:24 Now it's a tie and the People's Party and, that that really kind of changes everything. not having a conservative action. and it's going to take time. Like the Constitution is still kind of messed up, like it actually needs a proper rewrite, which is which is going to require a vote. So, you know, actually, things in Thai politics actually move quite slowly. You know, we had the coup in 2014 and they didn't have an election for five years.
Ed 00:33:53 And, and, and now like to really fix things like we need a new constitution. But now the politics and power, they're probably demotivated to do that. the progressive faction has to reform a new political party. And the bottom line is, the chance that the court will act against them is probably pretty high. So they've got to be super careful about every single legal requirement, every piece of paperwork, like everything they do.
Greg 00:34:21 And that's really hard. Like like we said before, right? The laws in Thailand are written in such a way that, like, everyone has broken a law at some point and if they want to get you, they're going to get you the People's Party.
Ed 00:34:33 They I'm sure they have teams of lawyers, but I mean, if they if they look in the wrong direction, like they're going to get disbanded again, like the Constitutional Court is just they're like anathema to them. so so anyway, long story short for Greg and I, it's it's just so weird to have this, populist faction and and the kind of toxin clan back in power is just because we lived through that whole era, and now we're like, wait, shit is like.
Greg 00:35:08 What was prime minister when I first came to Thailand in 2001? I remember there was a there's a time magazine with him on the cover, basically was saying like, is he Thailand's savior, like the first prime minister to be re-elected, you know. That's right. Yeah, yeah. And, yeah. And there were still dealing with that now. So I wonder if my son's going to grow up and his grandkids are going to be in power. Like it might be the beginning of the dynasty. Who knows?
Ed 00:35:30 The bottom line is, you know what I you know, in talking to my students, it's it's it's I'd rather have either the progressive faction or the populist faction than the military. So if you know, that's the way I spin all of this. If the military is now not a player, that's a step forward.
Greg 00:35:50 I think it will be a net positive for Thailand going forward into the 21st century. Yeah, I think it kind of has to happen.
Ed 00:35:57 Yeah. So we can we can end on a positive note.
Ed 00:35:59 I, I hope that's what I hope I hope that's what it means.
Greg 00:36:02 We'll see I hope that's what it means. And then if any military people are listening to this, we love you, but.
Ed 00:36:08 Well, why can't they? You know, I just want to. I just want the military to do military stuff, which is. But, you know, you know, and I was I was funny, I was just talking to my students today about this. The bottom line is I'm still just American. So I just don't think of the military should be involved in politics. That's just un-American. And I know I'm in Thailand, but I just feel like that makes more sense that the military should not be directly involved in politics, like.
Greg 00:36:34 Politicians directing armies. Leave that to the military, guys. Stick with what you're good at.
Ed 00:36:39 That's right, that's right. You know. Yeah, but but it is what it is. And, although it's been, chaotic and dramatic, I think you can make the argument that it has been good.
Greg 00:36:50 It's really interesting. Yeah. I one, one comment I want to make is that I just, I don't feel the tension in the air, the tension on the streets that has followed previous sort of political upheavals like this. And this one hasn't been perhaps as violent or as quick.
Ed 00:37:06 Well, that's because it's been, it's been it's actually been Democratic. So? So put. Hi. They made some deals, but it's actually all legal stuff. So they did some like Machiavellian political maneuvering, but they followed parliamentary procedure. And you know I'm saying yeah.
Greg 00:37:23 Yeah. But but some.
Ed 00:37:24 People so there's no.
Greg 00:37:24 One move forward was disbanded and just it just kind of it just kind of grew. But that's.
Ed 00:37:29 The court. No. Okay. You're right about that. But I mean that is the that's the court acting. So that's not that's literally judicial. It's not extrajudicial. So I mean okay. Fair enough. Most most of the protests were against, the unelected military government, right.
Greg 00:37:44 Yeah.
Greg 00:37:45 You're right. But I'm just saying, like, despite, you know, all of the upheavals recently, whether they were legal or not, there's been a lot of people pissed off, but it doesn't really seem to have gone anywhere. It just sort of.
Ed 00:37:55 Right. Well, I mean, the bottom line is that all the recent stuff has been legal. You know, whether you like it or not, it's been legal.
Greg 00:38:04 That's the worst kind of legal. The stuff that I don't like.
Ed 00:38:07 That's right.
Greg 00:38:08 Well interesting man. Thanks for that summary. That was really good. it's a fascinating time. And and I think the general consensus is that, again, no one really knows where this goes from here. It's just kind of uncharted territory. So it's never boring.
Ed 00:38:23 Well, I you know, I've been very impressed with, future forward, move Forward and the People's Party. I think they have a very long term view, and, I, I like this reset. I like a, I like a reset of a progressive party and a populist party because I see good things in both of them.
Ed 00:38:43 So to me, this is, a step in the right direction.
Greg 00:38:48 Yeah, I agree, I agree. Good one, good one. Man. Nice. All righty then. Well, let's get into some level of the live with where one of us picks a particular aspect of life in Bangkok, which we discussed to decide if it's something that we love about living here, loathe about living here, or have come to accept as something that we just have to learn to live with no matter how we feel about it. This weekend, I got a question for you. okay. And this is a food question. And I don't know if you eat this a lot, but I'm assuming you probably have eaten it. What do you think of yin tofu? And this is a question that comes from our buddy Gretton on Discord. Yenta Pho. Do you know what that is?
Ed 00:39:26 Oh, interesting. You know, I am familiar with it. I've had it. for some reason, I mean, it is like a tofu.
Ed 00:39:33 It's a tofu dish. And so as a vegetarian, I should kind of like it, but I don't know. It's never struck me as like being unique or it's not something I order regularly, but I have had it.
Greg 00:39:44 Yeah, that's really funny. That's the exact same opinion I have too. And I love vegetarian food and it looks cool.
Ed 00:39:48 I mean, it looks different, you know, it's it's almost like red. It's almost like pink broth, right? Yeah.
Greg 00:39:53 Bright pink or reddish broth. Yeah yeah yeah, yeah. It's cool. It looks like someone dropped paint in your soup or something. That's right, that's right. And people go mad for it. Like they're like, oh, you gotta have you into pho. This place. Place the best you into pho, right? Yeah. And I haven't had a lot of it. And I can't remember the last time I had it actually. But I every time I've had it I've gone like, yeah that's fine a couple of.
Ed 00:40:15 Times it's funny. Yeah. Yeah I'm kind of the same. I'm kind of the same. It, it kind of to me it, it, it looks cooler than it kind of takes. You taste it, and it's just like a noodle soup or like, you know, like a tofu soup, right?
Greg 00:40:29 Yeah. If I eat something that's neon colored, I want to have my taste buds dancing. Not to go. That's right. Yeah. That's great. It's a good noodle soup, you know. That's right. But it just seems very bland to me. And the pink stuff is actually fermented. soybean, paste or I got to say.
Ed 00:40:45 I mean, I got to say I'm just to live with, you know, but, yeah. So no problem with it. But, I never, I never, like, fell in love with it or anything.
Greg 00:40:54 Same with me. I'll eat it if it's in front of me. But I haven't felt the need to to seek it out.
Ed 00:40:59 All right. I do a dual live with.
Greg 00:41:01 Yeah, thanks. I'm good for that idea.
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